inflation in india

• India has a proud record on inflation. Between independence in 1947 and 2000, prices rose in double digits only 21% of the time, mainly during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Accepted wisdom is that inflation hurts the poor most and, since most people are poor, can quickly lead to a backlash. “Price rises in India have ignited student riots, nationwide demonstrations and government collapse,” writes Nandan Nilekani in his bestselling book, “Imagining India”.
• That logic may soon be tested. Like most emerging economies, India has slowed; unlike them, inflation has stayed high since late 2009, always flirting with double digits. Now, at last, it seems to be heading down. In July wholesale prices rose by 6.9%; “core” inflation, which excludes food, among other things, has been 5-6% for several months. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) targets wholesale inflation of about 5%.
• India’s industrialists and some politicians are screaming for lower interest rates. Growth has fallen to about 5% and private investment has dried up. Having engineered a slump to satisfy its rigid obsession with low inflation, they argue, the RBI can at last slash rates to kick-start growth.
• Will the RBI oblige? It is still worried about inflation. Food prices may rise because of a poor monsoon. Other one-off shocks are likely. Oil prices are creeping up. The figures do not yet reflect widespread increases in electricity tariffs. Suppressed inflation, thanks to state subsidies of fuel, is running at two or three percentage points. If the government is to repair its dodgy finances this year it will have to cut those subsidies, pushing prices up. Lastly, the RBI doubts that interest rates, which in real terms are not that high, explain the slump in investment. Bad governance and a lack of reforms do. Much lower rates might end up resurrecting inflation, but not growth.
• The stage is set for a confrontation. The ruling Congress-led coalition, unable or unwilling to pass reforms and facing an election in 2014, wants looser monetary policy. Under the previous finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, its outbursts came uncomfortably close to political interference. The new finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, has already asked state-owned banks to cut rates on consumer loans to revive demand.
• Since the mid-1990s the RBI’s independence has been accepted by the political class. Its real guarantor, though, is a sense that sound money is what most Indians want, even at the price of temporarily lower growth. But lately there has been little anguish about inflation. One theory is that the public’s dislike of high prices is a myth—some studies suggest high growth, not low inflation, wins votes. In a survey after the 2009 elections voters put inflation as only a middle-ranking concern. Fast-rising rural wages may also have insulated the poor.
• Another theory is that the decline of India’s Marxist parties, the rise of regional politicians and a vocal anti-corruption movement all mean that public anger over high prices is somehow being deflected. Whatever the explanation, for the RBI the lack of public outcry is a worry. It’s a lot easier to be independent if you have 1.2 billion people on your side.